Someone recently asked why I don’t talk much about the economy in my posts, whether it’s on The Accidental Banker or orvinkimbrough.com. It’s a fair question, and I wanted to share my take.

The truth is, there’s already a flood of content out there breaking down market trends, interest rates, and inflation. Turn on the news, scroll through social media, or check the headlines, experts are everywhere analyzing the latest shifts. And to be honest, I’m tuned in just like everyone else.

I think about the economy on two levels:

1. Like the average Joe, I’m just trying to make sense of how it affects me personally.
2. As The Accidental Banker, I focus on how Wall Street influences the business I lead – Midwest BankCentre – and Main Street. I’ve often said, so goes Main Street, so goes the bank, because that’s where the economic rubber meets the road for local small businesses. At the end of the day, community banks are small businesses.

Thinking About What You’re Thinking About

If you’re a homeowner (or hoping to become one), you’re not glued to economic reports for fun. You’re probably asking:

• What are interest rates going to do?
• Is my home gaining value, or is the market cooling off?
• Can I afford to refinance, or should I wait it out?

If you’re using credit cards, you’re wondering:

• How will rising rates affect my monthly payments?
• Are rates dropping anytime soon, or should I lock something in now?

And if you’re a small business owner, I’m right there with you. I know you’re watching the trends, whether it’s buying inventory, equipment, or materials. When costs rise or supply chains slow down, your business feels it immediately.

So yes, I absolutely track the financial landscape. I just don’t talk about it much because so many others already do.

Instead, I focus on the implications, the stuff that touches real lives and real businesses. That’s what matters most to me.

The Banking Perspective

In community banking, about 90% of your outcome is tied to how markets move and how that affects local communities. If your bank is diversified (spread across different loan types and services), it offers some protection.

The other 10% is risk management. Don’t let that small percentage fool you, it’s arguably the most important part. This is where leadership shines – anticipating different scenarios and protecting the bank (and the people we serve).

Here are a few examples:

• When rates rise, the cost of banking services increases, like deposits (what we pay you). But certain loans become more valuable. It’s a balancing act.
• If rates swing too fast, profitability takes a hit, especially for community banks that rely on the spread between deposits and loans. We have to carefully manage how much we pay for deposits versus what we earn from loans.
• Concentration risks are another factor.

Here’s what I mean:

• Let’s say your business has one client making up 80% of sales. If that client disappears, so does your revenue. That’s concentration risk. Maybe you can diversify… maybe you can’t.
• The same thing happens in banking. Imagine a community bank that’s heavily focused on mortgages. When rates were at all-time lows, that worked out great. But as we’ve seen recently with rising rates, that same business model struggles.

We’re constantly working to find the right balance, avoiding unnecessary risks during good times and not overreacting when the economy gets tough.

For me, it’s simple. Like most Americans, I try to stay straight up the middle, not too far left or right. Predictable, steady growth.

Why It Matters

I may not talk about the economy often, but I think about it every day. In banking, and in life, staying informed isn’t about obsessing over every headline. It’s about understanding how things affect the way you live, work, and plan for the future.

I believe the key is to stay curious. Keep asking questions, even if the topic feels overwhelming at first. Finance can seem intimidating, but when you break it down, it’s really about how people and businesses make decisions to keep growing.

What’s one economic or financial topic you’d like to understand better? Let’s unpack it together.